Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Pricing a financial asset in the stock market

The price of an asset in the financial market is determined by two factors. The first aspect is the fundamentals associated with the asset and the second is the expectations of the players in the market. The first aspect is easy to forecast since it is based on the return that you'll earn from the asset. But the second aspect is hard to forecast since it is based on human expectations, what price are people actually expecting? Though there's some complex mathematics that has been developed to measure this, but it still baffles economists and financial artists. These expectations is what keynes called animal spirits - it made me think of what nguni people call: umoya emibi, bad spirits.

The moral of the story is - the financial markets are akin to gambling. Period. Tread carefully.

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